Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Fri Jul 31?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 75° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 77°. ERA5 says the day verified at 78° with 1.74 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 75° | 82° | 79° | 79° | 92° | 78° | 78° | 75–92° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 74° | 72° | 81° | 79° | 76° | 88° | 84° | 72–88° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 76° | 73° | 78° | 84° | 83° | 76° | 76° | 73–84° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 74° | 73° | 80° | 80° | 88° | 76° | 81° | 73–88° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 77° | 74° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 75° | 80° | 74–80° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.