Was the forecast right for Milan on Tue Aug 18?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 6 models put Milan's Tue Aug 18 high anywhere from 76° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-11 | 85° | 82° | 82° | 76° | 95° | 89° | — | 76–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-12 | 89° | 79° | 75° | 82° | 86° | 92° | 89° | 75–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-13 | 87° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 88° | 90° | 84–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-14 | 92° | 89° | 91° | 86° | 92° | 91° | 89° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-15 | 90° | 88° | 92° | 88° | 95° | 91° | 90° | 88–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-16 | 90° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 89–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-17 | 90° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 92° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-08-18 | 90° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 88–93° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.