Was the forecast right for Milan on Tue Aug 18?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
7 days out, 6 models put Milan's Tue Aug 18 high anywhere from 24° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 34° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-11 | 30° | 28° | 28° | 24° | 35° | 32° | — | 24–35° |
| 6d · 2026-08-12 | 32° | 26° | 24° | 28° | 30° | 33° | 32° | 24–33° |
| 5d · 2026-08-13 | 31° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 31° | 32° | 29–32° |
| 4d · 2026-08-14 | 33° | 32° | 33° | 30° | 33° | 33° | 32° | 30–33° |
| 3d · 2026-08-15 | 32° | 31° | 34° | 31° | 35° | 33° | 32° | 31–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-16 | 32° | 32° | 33° | 32° | 32° | 33° | 33° | 32–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-17 | 32° | 31° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 33° | 33° | 31–34° |
| 0d · 2026-08-18 | 32° | 31° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 33° | 34° | 31–34° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.