Was the forecast right for Miami on Sun Aug 2?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 6 models put Miami's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 89° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 89° with 0.18 in of precipitation — rain.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 92° | — | 89–92° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 88–92° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 87° | 94° | 92° | 87–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 86–91° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 87° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 87–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 87° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 85° | 89° | 91° | 85–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 93° | 88° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 92° | 85–93° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.