Was the forecast right for Miami on Thu Jul 30?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Miami's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 91° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. ERA5 says the day verified at 98° — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 91° | 94° | 93° | 94° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 96° | 93° | 95° | 94° | 94° | 96° | 90–96° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 90° | 96° | 93° | 93° | 95° | 97° | 95° | 90–97° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 91° | 97° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 95° | 96° | 91–97° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.