Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Aug 5?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
9 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 82° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 11° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 82° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 80° | 93° | 96° | 93° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 76° | 87° | 93° | 91° | — | — | 76–93° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 78° | 87° | 93° | 90° | 85° | — | 78–93° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 83° | 77° | 90° | 94° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 77–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 76° | 88° | 91° | 90° | 82° | 85° | 76–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 82° | 76° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 85° | 88° | 76–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 77° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 86° | 77–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 82° | 77° | 88° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 85° | 77–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 77° | 87° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 87° | 77–87° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.