Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Aug 4?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 82° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 12° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 82° | 87° | 90° | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 78° | 88° | 93° | 91° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 76° | 87° | 93° | 92° | 86° | — | 76–93° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 77° | 90° | 94° | 92° | 85° | 91° | 77–94° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 77° | 91° | 93° | 93° | 84° | 88° | 77–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 77° | 91° | 93° | 91° | 83° | 88° | 77–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 77° | 90° | 91° | 91° | 85° | 88° | 77–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 78° | 89° | 88° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 78–89° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 83° | 77° | 88° | 86° | 89° | 84° | 86° | 77–89° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.