Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Jul 31?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 85° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 95° — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 16° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 85° | 94° | 93° | 92° | 86° | 89° | 85–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 89° | 80° | 96° | 94° | 93° | 86° | 90° | 80–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 89° | 81° | 95° | 91° | 92° | 86° | 92° | 81–95° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 89° | 80° | 95° | 90° | 91° | 86° | 89° | 80–95° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 79° | 94° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 79–94° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.