Was the forecast right for London on Fri Aug 14?

London, England · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put London's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 82° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 93° — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 82–92; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-11	88°	87°	90°	91°	92°	87°	82°	82–92°
2d · 2026-08-12	88°	87°	91°	92°	91°	89°	86°	86–92°
1d · 2026-08-13	89°	89°	91°	92°	94°	90°	91°	89–94°
0d · 2026-08-14	90°	91°	91°	95°	94°	92°	94°	90–95°
actual								93°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.