Was the forecast right for London on Fri Aug 14?

London, England · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put London's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 28° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 34° — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the London scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-11	31°	31°	32°	33°	34°	31°	28°	28–34°
2d · 2026-08-12	31°	31°	33°	33°	33°	31°	30°	30–33°
1d · 2026-08-13	32°	32°	33°	34°	34°	32°	33°	32–34°
0d · 2026-08-14	32°	33°	33°	35°	34°	33°	34°	32–35°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in London — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.