Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Aug 4?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Houston's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 89° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. ERA5 says the day verified at 96° with 0.18 in of precipitation — rain.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 90° | 95° | 98° | 102° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 92° | 97° | 98° | 96° | 101° | — | — | 92–101° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 101° | 96° | — | 91–101° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 92° | 98° | 98° | 95° | 101° | 95° | 99° | 92–101° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 95° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 102° | 97° | 100° | 95–102° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 94° | 96° | 101° | 97° | 103° | 96° | 98° | 94–103° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 94° | 98° | 98° | 97° | 102° | 94° | 97° | 94–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 95–97° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 95° | 98° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 98° | 93–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.