Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Aug 3?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
9 days out, 5 models put Denver's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 81° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 101°. ERA5 says the day verified at 102° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-25 | 81° | 94° | 91° | 84° | 92° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 82° | 98° | 105° | 98° | 99° | — | — | 82–105° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 80° | 93° | 94° | 93° | 100° | 86° | — | 80–100° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 96° | 99° | 101° | 96° | 104° | 99° | 91° | 91–104° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 97° | 99° | 103° | 97° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 97–103° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 96° | 100° | 102° | 97° | 104° | 98° | 100° | 96–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 97° | 95° | 101° | 94° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 94–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 99° | 101° | 101° | 94° | 99° | 103° | 100° | 94–103° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 98° | 101° | 101° | 94° | 102° | 102° | 101° | 94–102° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.