Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Aug 26?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 100° to 110°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 103°. The day verified at 101° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-21 | 100° | 102° | 106° | 104° | 106° | 110° | 100° | 100–110° |
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 99° | 101° | 109° | 102° | 103° | 103° | 100° | 99–109° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 98° | 99° | 107° | 104° | 104° | 104° | 102° | 98–107° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 99° | 100° | 100° | 104° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 99–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 98° | 99° | 103° | 105° | 102° | 106° | 96° | 96–106° |
| 0d · 2026-08-26 | 98° | 102° | 106° | 103° | 106° | 105° | 97° | 97–106° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.