Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Aug 26?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 38° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 3° hot.

5 days out the models said 38–43; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 3°C hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-08-21	38°	39°	41°	40°	41°	43°	38°	38–43°
4d · 2026-08-22	37°	38°	43°	39°	40°	39°	38°	37–43°
3d · 2026-08-23	37°	37°	42°	40°	40°	40°	39°	37–42°
2d · 2026-08-24	37°	38°	38°	40°	38°	39°	38°	37–40°
1d · 2026-08-25	37°	37°	39°	41°	39°	41°	36°	36–41°
0d · 2026-08-26	37°	39°	41°	39°	41°	41°	36°	36–41°
actual								38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.