Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 25?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
4 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 104° to 109°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 105°. The day verified at 101° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. UKMO ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 104° | 106° | 109° | 105° | 108° | 109° | 108° | 104–109° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 104° | 106° | 110° | 106° | 107° | 107° | 108° | 104–110° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 102° | 107° | 108° | 104° | 106° | 106° | 107° | 102–108° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 103° | 105° | 110° | 103° | 107° | 104° | 107° | 103–110° |
| 0d · 2026-08-25 | 102° | 104° | 107° | 104° | 105° | 105° | 108° | 102–108° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.