The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 25?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

4 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 40° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 40°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 4° hot.

4 days out the models said 40–43; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.8°C); UKMO ran 4°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-21 40° 41° 43° 40° 42° 43° 42° 40–43°
3d · 2026-08-22 40° 41° 43° 41° 41° 42° 42° 40–43°
2d · 2026-08-23 39° 42° 42° 40° 41° 41° 42° 39–42°
1d · 2026-08-24 39° 41° 43° 40° 42° 40° 41° 39–43°
0d · 2026-08-25 39° 40° 42° 40° 41° 40° 42° 39–42°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.