Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 24?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

3 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 104° to 109°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 107°. The day verified at 108° against the DAL observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 104–109; it hit 108. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-21	104°	106°	109°	106°	108°	108°	109°	104–109°
2d · 2026-08-22	105°	106°	110°	105°	110°	110°	110°	105–110°
1d · 2026-08-23	104°	108°	109°	105°	111°	108°	110°	104–111°
0d · 2026-08-24	105°	107°	109°	105°	108°	106°	109°	105–109°
actual								108°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.