Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 24?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

3 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 40° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 42°. The day verified at 42° against the DAL observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 40–43; it hit 42. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-21	40°	41°	43°	41°	42°	42°	43°	40–43°
2d · 2026-08-22	41°	41°	43°	41°	43°	43°	43°	41–43°
1d · 2026-08-23	40°	42°	43°	41°	44°	42°	43°	40–44°
0d · 2026-08-24	41°	42°	43°	41°	42°	41°	43°	41–43°
actual								42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.