Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Jul 31?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 99° to 108°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 104°. ERA5 says the day verified at 103° — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 99° | 100° | 106° | 102° | 108° | 105° | 104° | 99–108° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 101° | 105° | 108° | 102° | 108° | 105° | 104° | 101–108° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 101° | 104° | 107° | 103° | 108° | 104° | 104° | 101–108° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 102° | 103° | 106° | 101° | 104° | 103° | 104° | 101–106° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 103° | 104° | 105° | 102° | 104° | 104° | 104° | 102–105° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.