Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Aug 29?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
7 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 80° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 88° against the CLT observations, with 0.14 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 80° | 86° | 86° | 80° | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 86° | 88° | 80° | 96° | 91° | — | 80–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 88° | 86° | 81° | 92° | 89° | 77° | 77–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 81° | 84° | 72° | 81° | 76° | 80° | 72–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 83° | 84° | 86° | 90° | 83° | 86° | 82–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 83° | 86° | 78° | 91° | 82° | 83° | 78–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 87° | 85° | 81° | 87° | 81–87° |
| 0d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 84° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 84–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.