Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Aug 29?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
7 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 26° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 31° against the CLT observations, with 3.6 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 27° | 30° | 30° | 26° | 34° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 30° | 30° | 31° | 26° | 35° | 33° | — | 26–35° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 27° | 31° | 30° | 27° | 33° | 32° | 25° | 25–33° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 27° | 27° | 29° | 22° | 27° | 25° | 27° | 22–29° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 28° | 28° | 29° | 30° | 32° | 28° | 30° | 28–32° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 27° | 28° | 30° | 26° | 33° | 28° | 29° | 26–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 29° | 27° | 28° | 30° | 29° | 27° | 30° | 27–30° |
| 0d · 2026-08-29 | 29° | 29° | 31° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 31° | 29–31° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.