Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sun Aug 2?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 85° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. ERA5 says the day verified at 86° with 0.43 in of precipitation — rain.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-25 | 86° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 89° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 7d · 2026-07-26 | 86° | 85° | 88° | 90° | 89° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 78° | 90° | 86° | 84° | 79° | — | 78–90° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 77° | 90° | 77° | 84° | 80° | 90° | 77–90° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 82° | 80° | 78° | 87° | 85° | 81° | 78–87° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 80° | 83° | 84° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 78–84° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 82° | 88° | 84° | 83° | 89° | 89° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 85° | 86° | 89° | 87° | 81° | 82° | 81–89° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 86° | 83° | 85° | 84° | 82° | 89° | 82–89° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.