Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Sat Aug 1?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Charlotte's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 79° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 86° with 0.15 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. GEM ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 79° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 79° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 84° | 88° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 93° | 84–93° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 86° | 86° | 90° | 83° | 92° | 83° | 90° | 83–92° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 87° | 90° | 89° | 96° | 88° | 91° | 86–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 95° | 89° | 92° | 86–95° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 86–94° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 88° | 89° | 92° | 88° | 85° | 91° | 85–92° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.