Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Fri Jul 31?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 7 models put Charlotte's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 85° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-25 | 85° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 94° | 88° | 88° | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 85° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 94° | 88° | 88° | 85–94° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 92° | 85° | 89° | 85–92° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 95° | 86° | 87° | 86–95° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 96° | 87° | 89° | 87–96° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 89° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 90° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 88–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.