Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Jul 30?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Buffalo's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 73° to 81°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 77° | 78° | 74° | 73° | 77° | 78° | 81° | 73–81° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 79° | 76° | 78° | 76° | 82° | 77° | 78° | 76–82° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 78° | 78° | 86° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 78–86° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 80° | 80° | 79° | 85° | 82° | 79° | 80° | 79–85° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.