Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Oct 22?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 61° to 69°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the DCA observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 66° | — | — | 59° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 69° | 65° | 61° | — | 65° | — | — | 61–69° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 73° | 71° | 78° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 64° | 73° | 75° | — | 69° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 60° | 59° | 64° | — | 70° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 60° | 61° | — | 69° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 74° | 67° | 69° | 66° | 74° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 67° | 62° | 68° | 69° | — | — | 62–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 61° | 62° | 60° | 64° | 61° | — | — | 60–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 69° | 66° | 53° | 63° | 63° | 68° | 53–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 70° | 63° | 65° | 62° | 67° | 66° | 67° | 62–70° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 69° | 69° | 65° | 61° | 67° | 67° | 65° | 61–69° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 68° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 69° | 69° | 64° | 64–69° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 68° | 69° | 65° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 66° | 65–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 68° | 69° | 65° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 65–69° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.