Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Oct 18?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 60° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 62° against the DCA observations — clear.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 66° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 66–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 66° | 71° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 53° | 56° | 82° | — | 57° | — | — | 53–82° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 53° | 62° | 57° | — | 70° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 65° | 57° | — | 69° | — | — | 57–69° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 55° | 61° | 59° | — | 61° | — | — | 55–61° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 53° | 55° | 57° | 49° | 56° | — | — | 49–57° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 57° | 52° | 58° | 49° | 51° | — | — | 49–58° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 65° | 55° | 63° | 66° | 56° | — | — | 55–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 64° | 64° | 63° | 57° | 63° | 62° | 57–64° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 57° | 64° | 60° | 62° | 65° | 65° | 59° | 57–65° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 61° | 61° | 56° | 62° | 62° | 58° | 56° | 56–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 60° | 59° | 58° | 54° | 60° | 61° | 59° | 54–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 61° | 57° | 59° | 56° | 60° | 60° | 60° | 56–61° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 58° | 59° | 60° | 61° | 61° | 62° | 58–62° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.