Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Oct 17?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 58° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 62° against the DCA observations, with 0.12 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 60° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 57–60° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 58° | 58° | — | 59° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 70° | 63° | 73° | — | 70° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 71° | 63° | 78° | — | 71° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 60° | 64° | 74° | — | 76° | — | — | 60–76° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 66° | 75° | 59° | — | 81° | — | — | 59–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 74° | 67° | 61° | 87° | — | — | 61–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 61° | 71° | 61° | 57° | 68° | — | — | 57–71° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 57° | 68° | 59° | 65° | 72° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 56° | 57° | 58° | 58° | 54° | 55° | 60° | 54–60° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 59° | 63° | 57° | 55° | 65° | 60° | 55–65° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 65° | 60° | 60° | 65° | 60° | 60° | 64° | 60–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 63° | 67° | 61° | 58° | 68° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 62° | 65° | 64° | 63° | 66° | 66° | 62–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 62–64° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.