Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Oct 15?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 59° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 77° against the DCA observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 62° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 59° | 59° | 83° | — | 74° | — | — | 59–83° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 61° | 61° | 71° | — | 78° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 66° | 75° | — | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 83° | 50° | 83° | — | 68° | — | — | 50–83° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 67° | 62° | 70° | — | 81° | — | — | 62–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 60° | 66° | 65° | — | 64° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 61° | 66° | 58° | 67° | 71° | — | — | 58–71° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 71° | 80° | 65° | 89° | 72° | — | — | 65–89° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 75° | 68° | 69° | 68° | 67° | 70° | 67° | 67–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 75° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 72° | 78° | 69–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 72° | 71° | 71° | 77° | 72° | 78° | 71–78° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 72° | 76° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 77° | 72–77° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 76° | 72° | 70° | 75° | 71° | 74° | 77° | 70–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 76° | 73° | 75° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 73–79° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.