Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Oct 12?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 66° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the DCA observations, with 0.12 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 60° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 66° | 67° | 74° | — | 71° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 67° | 80° | 77° | — | 74° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 72° | 76° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 81° | 75° | 74° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 78° | 80° | 78° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 74° | 72° | 77° | 71° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 74° | 73° | 78° | 62° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 68° | 74° | 62° | 75° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 78° | 66° | 79° | 67° | 75° | 72° | — | 66–79° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 77° | 71° | 78° | 74° | 73° | 78° | 75° | 71–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 75° | 63° | 73° | 72° | 65° | 75° | 73° | 63–75° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 73° | 70° | 75° | 69° | 70° | 74° | 76° | 69–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 74° | 71° | 76° | 68° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 68–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 74° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 76° | 73–76° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.