Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Oct 10?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 58° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 72° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 61° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 61–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 61° | 76° | 75° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 76° | 58° | — | 60° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 76° | 59° | — | 62° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 70° | 73° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 71° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 78° | 74° | 80° | 68° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 71° | 77° | 80° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 76° | — | — | 74–77° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 70° | 75° | 76° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 69–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 72° | 71° | 75° | 70° | 72° | 76° | 68° | 68–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 70° | 73° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 70° | 70° | 70–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 73° | 72° | 71° | 75° | 76° | 70° | 71° | 70–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 71° | 71–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 72° | 73° | 71° | 74° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 71–74° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.