Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Oct 6?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 65° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 66° against the DCA observations — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 55° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 55–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 84° | 66° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 66° | 74° | 69° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 64° | 82° | 66° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 70° | 80° | 63° | — | 82° | — | — | 63–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 64° | 64° | — | 69° | — | — | 64–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 66° | 64° | 76° | 71° | 66° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 61° | 64° | 63° | 63° | 66° | — | — | 61–66° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 62° | 62° | 60° | 66° | 62° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 62° | 62° | 63° | 61° | 61° | 62° | 61° | 61–63° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 65° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 61–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 66° | 65° | 64° | 63° | 67° | 64° | 64° | 63–67° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 66° | 67° | 63° | 65° | 70° | 66° | 64° | 63–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 67° | 63° | 65° | 68° | 65° | 64° | 63–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 65° | 66° | 63° | 65° | 67° | 64° | 62° | 62–67° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.