Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Sep 27?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 69° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 66° against the DCA observations, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 69° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 69–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 79° | 80° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 80° | 82° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 75° | 85° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 72° | 78° | 67° | — | 73° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 65° | 74° | 65° | — | 71° | — | — | 65–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 60° | 75° | 73° | 69° | 76° | — | — | 60–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 78° | 76° | 62° | 69° | 61° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 76° | 66° | 71° | 75° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 77° | 68° | 72° | 79° | 75° | 76° | 68–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 71° | 77° | 73° | 71° | 77° | 66° | 77° | 66–77° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 73° | 69° | 62° | 62–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 64° | 72° | 65° | 66° | 72° | 66° | 70° | 64–72° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 64° | 65° | 65° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 63–66° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 65° | 63° | 67° | 67° | 64° | 68° | 63–68° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.