Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Sep 21?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 71° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 74° against the DCA observations, with 0.43 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 66° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 76° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 69° | 91° | — | 82° | — | — | 69–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 66° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 70° | 66° | 72° | — | 67° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 69° | 68° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 66° | 70° | 68° | 74° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 74° | 66° | 86° | 77° | 75° | — | — | 66–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 69° | 93° | 81° | 76° | — | — | 69–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 69° | 73° | 79° | 79° | 72° | 73° | 69–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 71° | 73° | 73° | 72° | 86° | 76° | 71–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 72° | 79° | 74° | 81° | 75° | 72° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 74° | 71° | 74° | 72° | 72° | 74° | 75° | 71–75° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 71° | 75° | 77° | 72° | 75° | 79° | 71–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 72° | 78° | 77° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 72–78° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.