Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Sep 13?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 75° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the DCA observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 85° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–85° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 75° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 94° | 81° | 75° | — | 77° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 93° | 86° | 102° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 93° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 87° | 66° | — | 88° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 76° | 86° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 84° | 86° | 87° | 90° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 90° | 88° | 89° | 83° | 86° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 80° | 88° | — | 80–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 84° | 86° | 89° | 83° | 85° | 87° | 84° | 83–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 90° | 83–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 84–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 86° | 84° | 81° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 89° | 83° | 88° | 83–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 86° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 85–88° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.