Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Sep 12?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 65° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 81° against the DCA observations — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 84° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 86° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 90° | 72° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 85° | 85° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 97° | 90° | 93° | — | 90° | — | — | 90–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 95° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 82° | 73° | — | 82° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 81° | 84° | 81° | 76° | 66° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 80° | 79° | 83° | 84° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 89° | 85° | — | 80–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 78° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 76° | 86° | 80° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 74–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 72° | 78° | 85° | 72–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 81° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 79° | 79–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 81° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 79–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 85° | 83° | 80–86° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.