Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Sep 6?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 79° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 85° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 93° | 80° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 86° | 75° | 94° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–94° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 92° | 94° | — | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 96° | 78° | 93° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 99° | 91° | — | 104° | — | — | 82–104° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 70° | 88° | 90° | 86° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 80° | 80° | 76° | 80° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 82° | 80° | 84° | 79° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 80° | 88° | 83° | 74° | 78° | 81° | 74–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 80° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 80–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 80–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 81° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 81° | 77–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 82° | 83° | 83° | 81° | 85° | 82° | 83° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 82° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 81–86° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.