Was the forecast right for Washington on Wed Sep 2?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 82° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 91° against the DCA observations, with 0.33 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-19 | 91° | 91° | 84° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-20 | 78° | 81° | 92° | — | 85° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 87° | 83° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 83° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 95° | 94° | 95° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 90° | 86° | 98° | 99° | 90° | — | — | 86–99° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 96° | 87° | 101° | 99° | 91° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 97° | 96° | 102° | 100° | 98° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 97° | 96° | 101° | 95° | 94° | 98° | 94° | 94–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 96° | 97° | 102° | 97° | 100° | 96° | 95° | 95–102° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 93° | 94° | 101° | 98° | 103° | 97° | 95° | 93–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 94° | 94° | 95° | 99° | 101° | 99° | 97° | 94–101° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 90° | 94° | 101° | 95° | 92° | 97° | 87–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 87° | 91° | 90° | 85° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 85–91° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.