Was the forecast right for Washington on Wed Sep 2?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 68° to 89°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the DCA observations, with 0.33 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-20 | 82° | 68° | 76° | — | 89° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 84° | 87° | 81° | — | 102° | — | — | 81–102° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 80° | 77° | 83° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 93° | 86° | 83° | — | 93° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 95° | 88° | 98° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 85° | 100° | 98° | 85° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 98° | 96° | 103° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 96–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 98° | 96° | 97° | 99° | 103° | 98° | — | 96–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 97° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 103° | 98° | 92° | 92–103° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 97° | 96° | 104° | 96° | 100° | 96° | 94° | 94–104° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 94° | 95° | 104° | 92° | 102° | 96° | 96° | 92–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 96° | 96° | 93° | 93° | 89–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 92° | 88° | 84° | 99° | 87° | 95° | 84–99° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 89° | 89° | 90° | 88° | 94° | 92° | 89° | 88–94° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.