Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Aug 13?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 65° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 89° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 86° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–86° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 78° | 82° | 86° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–86° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 91° | 85° | 91° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 72° | 98° | — | 102° | — | — | 72–102° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 93° | 94° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 87° | 83° | 92° | — | 84° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 83° | 73° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 90° | 91° | 93° | 85° | 92° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 90° | 91° | 92° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 90–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 90° | 91° | 92° | 88° | 91° | 90° | 93° | 88–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 89° | 90° | 91° | 82° | 87° | 93° | 92° | 82–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 90° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 89° | 88–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 90° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 92° | 94° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 91° | 91° | 88° | 89° | 93° | 89° | 90° | 88–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 91° | 90° | 92° | 96° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 90–96° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.