Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Oct 17?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 79° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 79° against the TPA observations, with 0.25 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 84° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 86° | 88° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 84° | 85° | — | 88° | — | — | 84–88° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 83° | 88° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 77° | 73° | 82° | — | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 85° | 88° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 78° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 83° | 87° | 86° | 83° | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 82° | 77° | 86° | 84° | 77° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 84° | 80° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 80–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 80° | 86° | 85° | 79° | 87° | 85° | 79–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 77° | 83° | 76° | 86° | 84° | 77° | 86° | 76–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 76° | 76° | 75° | 85° | 81° | 78° | 83° | 75–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 76° | 76° | 78° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 76–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 82° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 77–82° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.