Was the forecast right for Tampa on Fri Oct 16?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 85° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 89° against the TPA observations — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 79° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 85° | 87° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 88° | 85° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 80° | 85° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 90° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 87° | 86° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–87° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 86° | — | — | 86–89° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 87° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 87° | — | — | 86–89° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 87° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 90° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 87° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 86° | 86–90° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 86–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 88° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 86–90° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 88° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 90° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 87° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 87–90° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 86–91° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.