Was the forecast right for Tampa on Wed Oct 7?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 85° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 83° against the TPA observations, with 2.16 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 86° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 89° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 85–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 76° | 86° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 83° | 92° | 87° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 79° | 86° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 85° | 82° | 88° | — | 86° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 88° | 77° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 81° | 84° | 83° | 78° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 76° | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 75° | 75° | 82° | 85° | 78° | 83° | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 79° | 81° | 79–87° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 85° | 83° | 80° | 85° | 81° | 83° | 80–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 81° | 85° | 84° | 77° | 86° | 81° | 84° | 77–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 80° | 84° | 78° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 79° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 78–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.