Was the forecast right for Tampa on Mon Oct 5?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 81° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 88° against the TPA observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 82° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 81° | 82° | 83° | — | 82° | — | — | 81–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 90° | 81° | 91° | — | 91° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 90° | 89° | 87° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 83° | 88° | 88° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 90° | 92° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 90° | 89° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 89–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 90° | 90° | 88° | 90° | 83° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 89° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 88° | 85° | 80° | 89° | 88° | 92° | 90° | 80–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 83° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 80° | 89° | 80–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 82° | 81° | 89° | 90° | 84° | 91° | 81–91° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 86° | 84° | 84° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 84–90° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 86° | 85° | 82° | 88° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 82–88° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 86° | 87° | 91° | 86–91° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.