Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sun Oct 4?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 79° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 89° against the TPA observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 85° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 91° | 85° | 84° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 88° | 88° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 89° | 85° | 91° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 90° | 90° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 89° | 90° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 91° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 90° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 86° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 90° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 87–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 90° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 89–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 89° | 91° | 87° | 87° | 91° | 88° | 89° | 87–91° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 90° | 91° | 88° | 84° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 84–92° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 90° | 91° | 88° | 87° | 93° | 88° | 89° | 87–93° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 90° | 93° | 87° | 91° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 87–93° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.