Was the forecast right for Tampa on Fri Oct 2?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 78° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 87° against the TPA observations — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 86° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 82° | 78° | 86° | — | 80° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 88° | 90° | — | 84° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 90° | 86° | 77° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 86° | 82° | 87° | — | 83° | — | — | 82–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 91° | 92° | 93° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 90° | 90° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 89–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 90° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 92° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 93° | 92° | 90° | 89–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 91° | 92° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 91° | 88° | 86–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 90° | 92° | 88° | 91° | 94° | 91° | 90° | 88–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 90° | 91° | 87° | 86° | 85° | 93° | 92° | 85–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 86° | 82° | 86° | 90° | 82–90° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 88° | 86° | 84° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 84–91° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.