Was the forecast right for Tampa on Thu Oct 1?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 79° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 88° against the TPA observations, with 0.28 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 80° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 84° | 83° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 89° | 83° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 86° | 85° | 89° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 88° | 87° | 77° | — | 87° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 87° | 90° | 90° | — | 88° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 83° | 80° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 90° | 91° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 89° | 89° | 90° | 93° | 87° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 88° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 88–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 88° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 91° | 92° | 86–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 88° | 89° | 85° | 88° | 92° | 87° | 89° | 85–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 85–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 88° | 90° | 89° | 84° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 84–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 87° | 90° | 88° | 85° | 91° | 87° | 87° | 85–91° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.