Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Sep 26?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 85° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 84° against the TPA observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 89° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 89–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 89° | 88° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 89° | 80° | 87° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 92° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 88° | 91° | 80° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 89° | 86° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 85° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 85° | 89° | 87° | 87° | 89° | — | — | 85–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 84° | 87° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 85° | 84–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 83–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 83° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 89° | 84° | 83–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 82–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 83° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 81° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 84° | 81–85° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.