Was the forecast right for Tampa on Fri Sep 25?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 87° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 86° against the TPA observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 87° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 90° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 90° | 90° | 85° | — | 90° | — | — | 85–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 90° | 83° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 88° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 87° | 90° | 84° | — | 87° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 88° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 87° | — | — | 86–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 88° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 87° | 91° | 87° | 87° | 91° | 90° | 87° | 87–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 87° | 86–91° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 85° | 90° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 90° | 88° | 85–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 84° | 88° | 86° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 84–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 83° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 81° | 87° | 84° | 81–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 84° | 82–86° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.