Was the forecast right for Tampa on Tue Sep 22?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 87° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 90° against the TPA observations, with 0.78 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 84° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 90° | 91° | 88° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 78° | 85° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 90° | 88° | 83° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 91° | 91° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 83° | 89° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 89° | 88° | 89° | 86° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 92° | 85° | 92° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 84° | 90° | 83° | 89° | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 86° | 90° | 83° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 81° | 81–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 88° | 89° | 84° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 84–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 87° | 89° | 85° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 87° | 85–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 90° | 84° | 90° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 84–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 89° | 90° | 86° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 88° | 86–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 89° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 87–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.