Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sun Sep 13?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Tampa's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 89° to 96°; by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 87° against the TPA observations.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Forecast highs for Sun Sep 13 as each model's run approached it, recorded from the last archived model run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are omitted because they average the other models.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 90° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 93° | 89° | — | 96° | — | — | 89–96° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 92° | 90° | — | 97° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 90° | 92° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 93° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 90–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 95° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 91° | 89° | 94° | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 97° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 89° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 96° | 91° | 86–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 95° | 92° | 90° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 96° | 93° | 86° | 86–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 90° | 89° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 87° | 87–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 88° | 86–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 87° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 89° | 87–93° |
| actual | 87° |
What one day can show
A score for one day isn't very meaningful; a useful ranking needs many days of data. See which model has been most accurate in Tampa, or in every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time they were recorded by The Spread; nothing is reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.